G1 Climax 29 Preview

Johnny Legacy's Deep Thoughts

G1 Climax 29 Preview

So you're looking to be crazy like us Pod TFC Krue guys and have your own little G1 fantasy league? Well, this is the article for you! Here I'll attempt to rank all the wrestlers in the tournament in the rough order they should be drafted, while at the same time looking at their outlook for the real thing. Everyone else writes a boring preview column, I'm trying to put a unique spin on things that I hope you enjoy! The rankings: 

1. Tetsuya Naito (11 avg in 8 appearances, 12 last year; 2013 and 2017 winner, 2011 runner up)- Any of the top 3 would be an excellent first pick off the draft board and should all finish at around the same final number, but I'm going with Naito at the top. Naito is looking to become the 5th wrestler to win 3 or more G1s (or its predecessors), a group Tanahashi joined last year. Naito's stated goal is to be the first man ever to simultaneously hold the heavyweight and Intercontinental titles. I think the story of him winning the tournament and finally taking down Okada and all his demons in the Tokyo Dome (I'd say "slay the dragon" but Ospreay's got the market cornered on that term right now) is extremely plausible, and could well be where New Japan is going. He's as safe a pick as you can make. Projected points range: 12-14 

2. Kota Ibushi (9.5 avg in 4 appearances, 12 last year; 2018 runner up)- Another popular pick to win the whole thing after making the final last year, and committing to a lifetime contract with New Japan earlier in the year after years of freelancing and wandering the world. He was my pick for the tournament's MVP last year and every one of his matches should once again be must see affairs. I'd call Ibushi the favorite in the A Block (more on that below), and the tournament ending with one more Ibushi/Naito head dropping neck destroying showdown in the final is far from out of the question. Projected points range: 12-14

3. Kazuchika Okada (12.29 avg in 7 appearances, 13 last year; 2012 and 2014 winner)- Okada is a walking G1 points machine. After spending last year's tournament as Broken Okada following his title loss to Kenny Omega, he is 100% the Rainmaker and back on top again. So why third? Simple. The defending heavyweight champion never makes the final. The fact that Okada only has two finals appearances is largely due to the fact he's been the champion in most of his tournaments. The last reigning heavyweight champion to make the final was Yuji Nagata in 2007, and the last one to win the tournament was Kensuke Sasaki in 2000. Now, I think at some point it has to happen again just to show that it can happen, but I wouldn't bet on it this year. Okada will get his points, but something will happen to keep him out of the final. Projected points range: 12-14 

4. Jay White (12 last year in first appearance)- Here's the first dropoff of significance. White could very well have a run to take the block and maybe even the whole tournament, but his floor is also slightly lower than the top three guys depending on how the whole thing gets booked. White scored 12 in his G1 debut last year, picking up big wins over Tanahashi and Broken Okada along the way. He also got his first taste of the heavyweight title earlier this year. Will there be more DQs from Bullet Club along the lines of last year? White's a top pick, but one with just a smidge more risk. Projected points range: 10-14

5. Zack Sabre Jr (11 avg in 2 appearances, 12 last year)- ZSJ has a stellar tournament history in a short time in New Japan, from dominant New Japan cup runs to the quietest 12 points you'll ever see in the G1 last year. He's my dark horse A Block pick, especially if he would be against Naito in the final as they already have extensive tournament history to play off of. With Suzuki out of the tournament he's also the Suzuki-Gun standard bearer in this year's tournament. Like White, he could get you as many points as the top guys, but there is also a little more risk involved as a stellar run is not quite as much a sure thing as the top 3. Projected points range: 10-14

6. Hiroshi Tanahashi (12.38 avg in 8 appearances, 20 man tournament record 15 last year; 2007, 2015 and 2018 winner, 2004, 2010, and 2013 runner up)- Last year I predicted the G1 downturn of Tanahashi and he responded with a record performance and a tournament win, making the comeback of the Ace one of the biggest stories of the second half of 2018. He topped it off by winning his record 8th heavyweight title at Wrestle Kingdom (a match scuttlebutt says he wouldn't have won if it wasn't for Kenny Omega leaving for AEW). However since then the injuries, real and storyline, have started to pile up again. Time is a predator that stalks us all (thank you Dr. Soran). I'm sticking to my guns on Tanahashi having a downturn here. He'll still get decent points and one last absolutely last time final great run is not out of the question, but I expect him to be just outside the contenders at the end and more toward the floor than ceiling side of my projections. Projected points range: 10-14

7. Jon Moxley (first appearance)- My highest ranked newcomer, who won the IWGP US title in his first New Japan match, the former Dean Ambrose is poised for a huge debut tournament. New Japan is treating him like a star. Originally I said Moxley was my B Block dark horse, but that's been tempered somewhat by the news that his AEW contract won't let him work any NJPW shows outside of Japan. His floor is still high, making him a safe middish pick, but I bumped his ceiling down a tad following that news. Projected points range: 10-12

8. KENTA (first appearance)- Another newcomer rightly getting star treatment in his New Japan debut. KENTA was the ace of NOAH for years before taking the plunge with WWE. Sadly that didn't work out, and now he's back in his homeland looking to resurrect his career. Again, like Moxley New Japan is giving him the star treatment, but I would temper tournament expectations. If KENTA is going to be with New Japan for a while he could end up with a really good run, but there's a bit more risk/reward involved here as he could just as easily get one or two big signature wins but end up with a so-so points total. Projected points range: 8-12

9. EVIL (10 avg in 3 appearances, 10 last year)- EVIL has had solid G1 runs to this point, cracking double digits in two out of three tries and topping out at 12 in 2017. I would expect either he or SANADA to have a bit of a breakout tournament, but it's anyone's guess which it'll be. Traditionally EVIL has gotten the wins while SANADA has gotten the buzz. Their showdown on night 5 will go a long way to seeing who it ends up being. Regardless of that, his floor is high enough to make him a safe middle pick. Projected points range- 8-12

9. SANADA (8 avg in 3 appearances, 8 last year)- While EVIL has racked up points, SANADA has been Mr. Consistency, with exactly 8 points in all three of his tournaments. Again, one of LIJ's guys should have a break out, but flip a coin as to which one. SANADA has gotten lots of time in the spotlight lately with several matches against Okada, including two heavyweight title shots, and NJPW brass is clearly high on him. He's got all the tools, but will he finally put it all together? Like EVIL, he's a safe middle pick with a solid floor and a chance for more. Projected points range: 8-12

11. Tomohiro Ishii (8.67 avg in 6 appearances, 10 last year)- Finally getting the NEVER Openweight title back for a record fifth time, a belt Ishii was synonymous with the first few years it existed but he hasn't had since losing it at Wrestle Kingdom 10, solidifies an already solid floor. In every G1 other than his first Ishii has come in with either 8 or 10 points, and I don't expect much deviation this year. In terms of knowing what you're going to get, he's one of the safest picks there is. Projected points range: 8-10

12. Will Ospreay (first appearance)- Ospreay is an interesting case. On one hand, the record for junior heavyweights in the G1 is spotty. Prince Devitt/Finn Balor scored 8 and 10 in his two appearances, by far the best for any juniors. On the other hand, Ospreay is clearly loved by NJPW brass, has recently moved to Japan signalling his commitment, has proven himself against heavyweights already in the New Japan Cup and with the NEVER title, and, in my mind, is the frontrunner for wrestler of the year in 2019 so far. In Ospreay they might see the guy that can take Kenny Omega's spot as a gaijin leader for the company. If you wanted to take him in the top half there's worse speculative high risk/high reward picks you could make, and where he ends up is anyone's guess, as reflected in my point range for him. But one thing is for sure, every one of his matches will be worth watching. Projected points range: 6-12

13. Shingo Takagi  (first appearance)- The tournament's unprecedented second junior, Shingo is in a similar situation to Ospreay. What works most to his advantage is that he doesn't seem destined to be a junior very long (I was always surprised he was one in the first place. I think it's mostly because he took Takahashi's spot.) His showdown with Naito will also be fascinating from a long term story standpoint. Will he stay with LIJ or attempt to break out on his own? Despite that, I'm putting his ceiling a skosh lower than Ospreay's as I'm not sure this year will be so much a breakout for him as a transition. But he's also a risk/reward pick worth rolling the dice on. Projected points range: 6-10

14. Bad Luck Fale (10 avg in 5 appearances, 6 last year)- Before last year's BCOG Fuck 'Em DQ disaster Fale was a consistent double digit performer. Given the depth of this field he's going to have a hard time getting back up there, not to mention if he and his BC cohorts will behave themselves any better this year. Going into last year he was a solid first half, high floor pick. This year I would approach with caution. Projected points range: 6-10

15. Juice Robinson (7 avg in 2 appearances, 6 last year)- The fans love Juice. Japan loves Juice. Korakuen certainly loves Juice. His tournament record however, both in the G1 and New Japan Cup, leaves a lot to be desired. One of the big stories of last year's tournament was Juice not being able to buy a win despite the fact he was the US champ, partially due to his injured left hand. This year he's healthy, and carrying a big chip on his shoulder after dropping the US title to Moxley, even cutting his dreads off to show a new attitude. A smallish run is not out of the question, but he could just as easily crash and burn again. Projected points range: 4-10

16. Toru Yano (8 avg in 8 appearances, 6 last year)- Last year broke a streak of 5 straight years of at least 8 points for Yano, even cracking 10 in 2016. His attempts to play by the rules last year ("fair play" Yano) was a disaster from a win/loss standpoint, and I would expect classic Yano from the out this year. His job in the tournament is completely defined- get a few upset wins, but more importantly bring some fun and a change of pace from the serious wrestling in this long tournament. Anyone that hasn't seen his comedy masterpiece with Kenny Omega from the 2017 G1 needs to check that out. If you're looking for a stable last pick to fill out your roster, this is him. Projected points range: 6-8

17. Lance Archer (8 avg in 4 appearances, first tournament since 2013)- A surprise entrant to be sure. With longtime Killer Elite Squad teammate Davey Boy Smith, Jr leaving New Japan, Archer is now primarily a singles rather than tag wrestler for the first time in quite a while. I suspect his place in this tournament was as a thank you for the promotional work he's done in his home state of Texas for the Dallas show. Where he goes depends on what kind of plans New Japan has for him for the long term. A small run is possible, but far from a guarantee. Projected points range: 4-10

18. Taichi (first appearance)- New Japan's love affair with Taichi has been baffling me for almost two years now. Since moving up to heavyweight in the spring of '18 he's a two time NEVER champion and had an Intercontinental title shot against Naito. All despite still wearing the junior trunks. Still, I'd rather see him in this spot than YOSHI-HASHI. Many people expected him to be in the G1 last year, but he finally makes his debut here. Sneaking up to double digits isn't out of realm of possibility given how he's been booked, but a standard debut total is much more likely. Projected points range: 4-10

19. Jeff Cobb (first appearance)- Cobb has been wrestling since 2009, but made no large waves at all before joining the cast of Lucha Underground in 2015. Since then his career has been on a definite upward trajectory, winning the Ring of Honor TV title, BOLA, the PWG World title (a company that knows how to pick its champions), and getting a cup of coffee with the hot potato NEVER title earlier this year. For his first G1 I would expect a very similar run to what Hangman Page got last year: lots of close losses, gaining crowd support and respect, and a big upset win or two. Projected points range: 4-8 

20. Hirooki Goto (9.5 avg in 8 appearances, 6 last year; 2008 winner, 2016 runner up)- With guys like Togi Makabe and Satoshi Kojima not making the cut this year, Goto seems likely to take over the "veteran who's there to eat losses" role. His career G1 roller coaster bottomed out last year despite the fact he was the NEVER champion at the time, and given where he's positioned and the depth of the field it might get even worse this year. If you get saddled with him on your fantasy roster, I'm sorry. At least his music is still awesome. Projected points range: 4-6