G1 Climax 30 Preview

Johnny Legacy's Deep Thoughts

G1 Climax 30 Preview

The greatest time on the wrestling calendar is upon us again! The blocks for this year's G1 Climax tournament are now out, which means it's once again time for my horribly wrong predictions. Please note all the average points numbers for each wrestler are only from 2010 on, the year the current format (if not size) of the tournament settled in.

A Block

1. Kazuchika Okada (9th appearance, 14 last year, 12.5 avg, 2012 & 2014 winner)- Whenever Okada goes into a G1 without the belt you have to consider him the prohibitive favorite. Whether it happens or not is very up in the air. This year's tournament is pretty wide open. But however it shakes out, Okada will be in the mix. Projected points: 12-14

 

2. Kota Ibushi (6th appearance, 14 last year, 10.4 avg, 2018 runner up, 2019 winner)- The Golden Star has been the Ace of the G1 the last two years, totaling 26 points overall and making both finals. He's looking to become the first wrestler since Hiroyoshi Tenzan in '03-'04 to win back to back G1s, and the first ever to make three consecutive finals. If the hinted at and rumored turn to the dark side does indeed happen, another win setting up a renewal of his rivalry with Naito on the grand stage of the Tokyo Dome is not out of the question. Projected points: 12-14

 

3. Jay White (3rd appearance, 12 last year, 12 avg, 2019 runner up)- The Switchblade overcame an 0-3 start last year to score 12 points for the second straight year and make his first final. I don't see him as quite as much of a sure thing as Okada or Ibushi, but another run to the final is certainly possible. As my friend Cody Kahne postulated on Twitter, an all-Bullet Club final would be a very interesting story, with three top stars and now two former heavyweight champions all in the group. Projected points: 10-14

 

4. Will Ospreay (2nd appearance, 8 last year)- Ospreay finally makes his pandemic delayed return to New Japan, and is poised for a potentially huge tournament following his, in my opinion, wrestler of the year performance in 2019 and official move to heavyweight. But this block draw did him no favors. If he was in B block he'd be a favorite, here he's just a potential spoiler and dark horse. Projected points: 8-12

 

5. Shingo Takagi (2nd appearance, 8 last year)- Another wrestler poised to make a leap forward. The former Dragon Gate star has been steadily moving up the New Japan ladder, most notably going undefeated in block competition in the '19 Best of the Super Juniors and his recent run with the NEVER Openwight title. Like Ospreay, there's a lot to overcome in this block. Should New Japan ever get Naito's belts separated again, Shingo would be a top contender for the Intercontinental title. Projected points: 8-10

 

6. Tomohiro Ishii (8th appearance, 8 last year, 8.6 avg)- No one steps up their game, match quality wise, for G1 season like Big Tom, and you know exactly what you're going to get from him: a midpack finish, a big upset or two, and a pack of 4+ star matches left behind. Projected points: 8-10

 

7. Minoru Suzuki (9th appearance, first since 2018, 9.8 avg)- After missing last year's tournament, possibly due to contract renegotiations or sadly Suzuki not being able to work the Dallas show, the King is back, and newly recrowned as NEVER Openweight champion to boot. Suzuki is another guy that will have plenty of great matches during the tournament (we need to start having a conversation on if Suzuki is the best over 50 wrestler of all time, the guy has only gotten better with age) but not make any serious challenge for the top of the standings. Projected points: 6-10

 

8. Taichi (2nd appearance, 8 last year)- Taichi put together a respectable tournament last year, going a long way to winning a skeptic of his like me partially over, and should be in the same range this year. Hopefully Dangerous T shows up more than lazy "everyone interfere for me" Taichi. As Kevin Kelly aptly put it, he's not a max effort guy. Projected points: 6-8

 

9. Jeff Cobb (2nd appearance, 8 last year)- After a so-so debut last year Cobb is a surprise return to me. To be perfectly honest I'm not overly enthused to see him again but hope he does something to prove me wrong. A high points total, however, is not happening. Projected points: 6-8

 

10. Yujiro Takahashi (7th appearance, first since 2015, 6.3 avg)- He's just here to eat pins. Expect lots of crappy BC interference filled matches. Projected points: 2-6

 

B Block

 

1. Tetsuya Naito (11th appearance, 10 last year, 10.5 avg, 2011 runner up, 2013 & 2017 winner)- For the first time in his storied career Naito is walking into the G1 as the defending IWGP Heavyweight Champion. Naito had a by his standards disappointing run last year, while he was fighting through a legit eye injury that gave him double or even triple vision. He'll be looking to become the first wrestler in 20 years to win the tournament as champion, and he's drawn the weaker of the two blocks on paper, but the most likely outcome is a champion run like Okada and Kenny Omega had the last couple of years: a long winning streak to start with a couple of upset losses at the end to keep him out of the final. Projected points: 12-14

 

2. Zack Sabre Jr (4th appearance, 8 last year, 10 avg)- The #2 rank in this block was a very tough call, but I'm going with ZSJ because I think he has a slightly higher floor than the next couple of guys. After hitting double digits his first two tournaments he slipped to 8 last year (and despite what he says it's not Boris Johnson's fault). Expect a big rebound this year. If the tradition of the champion not making the finals holds up, ZSJ could well be in his first G1 final. Projected points: 12-14

 

3. KENTA (2nd appearance, 8 last year)- KENTA debuted in last year's G1 in huge fashion, defeating eventual winner Kota Ibushi the opening night. After working the tournament as a face but failing to win the support of the NJPW faithful, he turned heel and joined Bullet Club, then ruined Naito's victory celebration in the Tokyo Dome. He's already got one briefcase from the US New Japan Cup to challenge for the IWGP US Title. Can he add a second briefcase? He's in the group to make a serious run and I like his chances more of the two BC guys in this block. Projected points: 10-14

 

4. EVIL (5th appearance, 8 last year, 9.5 avg)- Filthy traitor EVIL showed his true colors (sorry, my LIJ fandom showing) when he shocked the wrestling world by turning on Naito and joining Bullet Club, and doubled the shock by winning the IWGP Heavyweight and Intercontinental titles. But after Naito won the titles back his story feels somewhat completed for now. I expect a strong but not winning run. The match between him and KENTA will be very interesting. Projected points: 10-12

 

5. Hiroshi Tanahashi (19th appearance, 8 last year, 11.6 avg, 2004, 2010 & 2013 runner up, 2007, 2015 & 2018 winner)- After pulling out a surprise 3rd G1 win in '18, last year's results really look like the Ace's time challenging for tournament wins is over. The "Tanahashi is aging" story has been played very heavily since he dropped the heavyweight title early last year, and his slow decline to New Japan Dad status should continue. It's a shame he and Ibushi aren't in the same block, especially if Ibushi's turn to the dark side is continuing. Projected points: 8-12

 

6. SANADA (5th appearance, 8 last year, 8 avg)- SANADA's been in 4 G1s. He's scored 8 points every time. There's not much reason to expect anything different this year. He could get a decent run, but I'm not banking on it. Projected points: 8-10

 

7. Hirooki Goto (13th appearance, 10 last year, 9.4 avg, 2016 runner up, 2008 winner)- I wrote him off for dead last year, but instead the Goto roller coaster continued and he put up a solid 10. Expect the coaster to dive back down this year. Projected points: 6-10

 

8. Juice Robinson (4th appearance, 8 last year, 7.3 avg)- The former 2 time US champ has yet to make a major mark on any G1. While he could shock us, I don't see that changing this year. Projected points: 6-10

 

9. Toru Yano (15th appearance, 8 last year, 8 avg)- After struggling to 6 points trying to be Fair Play Yano in '18, the sublime master thief returned with a vengeance last year, getting his usual 8 points but picking up huge upset wins over Naito, White and Moxley, the latter of whom never recovered and gave us the "you've been Yano'd" image for the ages. Hope for more of the same. Yano wrestling in a G1 is one of the most entertaining things ever in wrestling and we should enjoy it while it's still here. Projected points: 6-8

 

10. YOSHI-HASHI (3rd appearance, first since 2018, 5.3 avg)- After missing last year's tourney with an injury one of New Japan's permanent underdogs is back for another go. I said after 2018 I never wanted to see a HASHI match again, and I haven't really changed that stance. Always take the under with YOSHI-HASHI. Always. Prejected points: 4-6