G1 Climax 31 Preview

Johnny Legacy's Deep Thoughts

G1 Climax 31 Preview

The greatest month of the wrestling year is here once again! Sadly, due to travel restrictions in Japan there are no outsiders coming in this year, and several regular G1 competitors have opted to work the NJPW US tour instead (self-proclaimed "real world champion" Will Ospreay, NEVER Openweight Champion Jay White, Juice Robinson and Minoru Suzuki). Still, the G1 is still the G1 and this year's roster is loaded with talent as always. I'll try to analyze each bracket and make a guess as to where each wrestler will finish. As always, I will hold myself 100% accountable for anything I get wrong, or right, in my wrapup column after the tournament is over.

Note: all point averages are for the last 10 tournaments only (2011-2020)

 

A Block

 

1. Tetsuya Naito (12th appearance, 12 last year, 11 avg, 2011 runner up, 2013 & 2017 winner)- A year ago Naito got the champion's run, scoring 12 points but just missing the final, all the while laying down a ton of great matches and looking like he was enjoying the hell out of himself finally getting to be champion during the G1, and after fighting through an eye injury the year before. His epic entrance standoff with Yano still has me laughing today. A Block is the stacked murder's row block this year, but Naito's G1 history is one of consistent excellence and I would not be shocked to see him make his fourth final this year. I'll circle back to that later. Projected points: 10-14

 

2. Kota Ibushi (7th appearance, 14 last year, 11 avg, 2018 runner up, 2019 & 2020 winner)- Put simply, the G1 has been Ibushi's bitch the last three years. He set a record last year making his third straight final, became the first wrestler to score 14 points two straight years under the current points system and had 38 total points the last 3 years, and was the first wrestler in over 15 years to win back to back tournaments. I can't see him completely destroying the record books by making it four and three this year. He'll have another good run, but likely end up just short. Projected points: 10-14

 

3. Shingo Takagi (3rd appearance, 8 last year, 8 avg)- A year ago in my tournament wrapup I guaranteed Shingo would win a G1 some day. Now he's gone and jumped ahead of me by winning the IWGP World title first, and very well deserved for the man that is an absolute unstoppable wrestling machine. But, being the defending champion always comes with disadvantages in the G1. He'll get the champion's run, but odds are it won't include a finals appearance. Put it on record though, he did say in the post-Wrestle Grand Slam press conference that he wanted to win the tournament to show Ospreay who the true world champion is. We'll see if that ends up happening. He'd be the first in about two decades to do it. Projected points: 10-14

 

4. KENTA (3rd appearance, 10 last year, 9 avg)- Like most of KENTA's New Japan career so far, his first two G1s have been a bit bumpy. I have him ranked lower than Ibushi or Shingo because I think his floor is a bit lower, but I also think he's the most likely man to make it out of the block if Naito doesn't due to Ibushi and Shingo's situations. He's a risky bet, but one that might pay off when it's all over. Projected points: 8-14

 

5. Zack Sabre Jr. (5th appearance, 10 last year, 9.5 avg)- After scoring 12 points in 2018 (and winning the New Japan Cup the same year) I've been predicting ZSJ's breakthrough into the final for two years, and what's followed have been two mediocre tournaments. No more getting burned. Especially with his focus on the tag division with Dangerous Tekkers partner Taichi, another just outside of contention finish is likely in order. Projected points: 8-12

 

6. Great O-Khan (1st appearance)- O-Khan returned to New Japan with great fanfare as part of Ospreay's heel turn during last year's G1 final block night after going undefeated during his short UK excursion, but his return so far has not been spectacular. He has yet to pick up a signature singles win, has lost major singles matches to Tanahashi and Naito, and he honestly hasn't wowed anyone match quality wise either. His biggest positive is he and United Empire teammate Jeff Cobb have been dominant in tag matches (they should get in the tag title mix). There's a small chance he gets a run this year to establish himself, but I wouldn't count on it. It'll be a year or two before he's in contention. Projected points: 8-10

 

7. Tomohiro Ishii (9th appearance, 8 last year, 8.5 avg)- For Ishii I can pretty much copy and paste what I wrote last year: No one steps up their game, match quality wise, for G1 season like Big Tom, and you know exactly what you're going to get from him: a midpack finish, a big upset or two, and a pack of 4+ star matches left behind. Projected points: 8-10

 

8. Toru Yano (16th appearance, 6 last year, 7.8 avg)- Which Yano will show up for this year's G1? Will it be the fun loving Yano whose comedy matches are a highlight of every G1, at least for me? Or will it be the classic Most Violent Player Yano, who he brought back to regain the KOPW trophy from Chase Owens? I love fun Yano, but MVP Yano would bring a nice new edge to his G1 matches. Either way, his win total will be the same as always. Projected points: 6-8

 

9. Tanga Loa (1st appearance)- I'm happy Loa's getting this shot. He can go, and now he gets a chance to showcase it. I remember a few years ago when he was racking up pins in all the undercard tag matches throughout the whole tournament (which are not happening again this year due to shortened COVID era cards). He won't win a lot, but as long as they stick to straight up wrestling and not Bullet Club interference filled matches most should be good. Projected points: 4-8

 

10. Yujiro Takahashi (8th appearance, 2 last year, 6 avg)- Like last year, he's just here to eat pins. With the buzzsaw the top 6-7 guys are going to be in this group, you need someone like this to keep their points totals up. Projected points: 2-4

 

B Block

 

1. Kazuchika Okada (10th appearance, 12 last year, 12.4 avg, 2012 & 2014 winner)- The dominant, unbeatable Okada that held an iron grip on the IWGP Heavyweight title for two straight years is a quickly fading memory. It's been over two and a half years since he was champion, he fell to Shingo in the match for the vacated World title, and he's going into this year's tournament having just lost to Jeff Cobb for the first time. There's also been concern over a lingering back injury, which might be one reason why he's using the Money Clip so much over the Rainmaker. Still, it's still Okada and he's overdue for another G1 win, not to mention title run. Circling back to what I was talking about in Naito's preview, if New Japan is playing it safe this year, and with everything going on they could well be, an Okada/Naito final would be the safest bet they could make. Projected points: 12-14

 

2. EVIL (6th appearance, 12 last year, 10 avg)- EVIL has the benefit of drawing the weaker block this year. His results have been up and down since turning traitor on LIJ, but New Japan clearly still sees him as a guy to push despite a less than enthusiastic reception from hardcore fans. He stayed in contention the whole tournament last year, and he should be right in line to make the finals if Okada doesn't. It's also going to be interesting to see how his new House of Pancakes...er, Torture (reference for that joke here) group plays out. Projected points: 10-14

 

3. Hiroshi Tanahashi (20th appearance, 8 last year, 11.5 avg, 2004, 2010 & 2013 runner up, 2007, 2015 & 2018 winner)- Tanahashi begins his third decade of G1 competition this year, having started to slip back in the standings the last two years with just 8 points each. But amazingly he's quietly on the rise again, with lingering injuries seemingly healed as much as possible (or at least not talked about anymore), winning the NEVER Openweight and IWGP US titles to make him the second NJPW Grand Slam champion, and still defying time to perform at a high main event level every single match. It's unlikely he makes the final, but this might be the last year the Ace gets an Ace-like run. Projected points: 10-14

 

4. Jeff Cobb (3rd appearance, 8 last year, 8 avg)- I've never doubted Cobb's freakish athletic ability, but I have doubted whether he had the complete package to be a main event player. Turning heel and hooking up with the United Empire has done wonders for his career. As mentioned earlier, he and O-Khan have consistently won undercard tag matches, while Cobb scored the win of his career just two weeks before the tournament start over Okada at Wrestle Grand Slam. He's coming in with as much momentum as anyone. If there's an upset winner of B Block, this is him. The fact that his rematch with Okada has been scheduled for the last block night is very telling that he's at least going to be in contention at the end for the first time. Projected points: 10-12

 

5. SANADA (6th appearance, 12 last year, 8.8 avg, 2020 runner up)- After scoring a reliable 8 points in all of his first 4 G1's SANADA shocked the world by putting up 12 points and going all the way to the finals last year, finally fulfilling some of that long overdue potential. I missed his run in my predictions last year, but I can't see him doing it again, especially has he's gone right back to the spot on the card he was a year ago. Projected points: 8-12

 

6. Taichi (3rd appearance, 8 last year, 8 avg)- Last year's performance turned me from a Taichi hater to a believer. He had a rock solid tournament, capped off with the incredible "nothing but kicks" match with Ibushi the last night. His run with ZSJ in the tag division has also been very good. Hopefully we'll see more of the same this year, though don't expect anything more than a middle of the pack result. And the more we see of Miho Abe, the better. Projected points: 8-10

 

7. YOSHI-HASHI (4th appearance, 4 last year, 6.67 avg)- HASHI's had the best year of his career, being part of the CHAOS team winning the NEVER 6 man titles, his first title ever, and really being the heart and glue of that team during their record run with those belts. I always say take the under with HASHI, but that run could translate into a little more tournament success. Not much, but a little. Projected points: 6-10

 

8. Hirooki Goto (14th appearance, 8 last year, 9.4 avg, 2016 runner up, 2008 winner)- Ah, the Goto roller coaster. He's due for a down year, especially as I expect CHAOS stablemate HASHI to outdo him this year (hence the rankings). New Japan Dad status is in Goto's near future as he winds down. Projected points: 6-8

 

9. Tama Tonga (4th appearance, first since 2018, 7.3 avg)- The last time Tonga was in a G1 was in 2018, when he and Bad Luck Fale almost got themselves fired for constantly getting disqualified and not taking the tournament seriously. I don't expect that this year, but the results shouldn't be far from his usual and his matches will likely be riddled with BC interference. Projected points: 4-8

 

10. Chase Owens (1st appearance)- I am so thrilled Owens, YOUR reigning and defending Texas Heavyweight Champion, is finally getting a crack at the G1. He's one of the most underrated wrestlers in the world. That being said, he's pretty much a warm body and can't expect much in the way of wins. It'll be a race between him and Yujiro as to who has the lowest point total for the tournament. My main hope is BC interference will be at a minimum in his matches and he gets a chance to show what he can do. Projected points: 2-8