G1 Climax 32 Preview

Johnny Legacy's Deep Thoughts

G1 Climax 32 preview

The greatest time of the wrestling year is upon us again, the annual G1 Climax tournament, thankfully back in its traditional July/August spot. With New Japan's 50th anniversary celebrations, and the sheer amount of talent available, we have the largest G1 field in history- 28 wrestlers split into 4 blocks of 7. I will say up front it's a bit disappointing they couldn't get anyone over from AEW for a month other than Lance Archer. Hopefully next year we'll finally fulfill the dream of Bryan Danielson in a G1, and/or the return of Kenny Omega. This year's lineup also feels the absence of the still injured Kota Ibushi, the man that's dominated the tournament since moving up to heavyweight and who will not be able to try to extend his record to 5 straight finals or win his third tournament in four years.

Before getting into the individual previews, with this year's format we have to talk about the points. Bear with me here, this is important. For years the tournament has been two blocks of 10 (or 11 one year), so we've gotten used to the points structure: 8 was average, anything below that bad, 10 was good, 12 at worst got you in contention, and anything over 12 was virtually guaranteed to win the block unless someone else really blew it out of the water. With the seven man blocks, each wrestler will only have 6 matches during the block stage instead of 9. Given that, I think we can mark out 6 points as our average mark (3-3 record), and anything double digits will be at the top of the standings. With fewer matches I think it's pretty likely one or two guys will run the table and go undefeated for a full 12 points as well. Also remember this year sees the return of the semifinal/final format so there's one match between winning the block and making the final.

All averages cited are from 2011 on, the first year with a 20 man field.

A Block

1. Kazuchika Okada (11th appearance, 16 last year, 12.8 avg, 2012, 2014 & 2021 winner)- Last year Okada, along with Jeff Cobb, set a new points record in a 20 man field with 16 on the way to the tournament win and regaining the Heavyweight title at Wrestle Kingdom. I had him slated for the champion's run, but all that changed when Jay White took the title away at Dominion. For what seems like the millionth time in the last 3-4 years, Okada's career appears to be at a crossroads. My feeling after Dominion was the all-powerful dominant Okada that held the title for two years straight is well and truly gone. I don't see him repeating, but I think it's very likely he's the one coming out of this block. Projected points: 10

 

2. Jeff Cobb (4th appearance, 16 last year, 10.7 avg)- Not only did Cobb and Okada both set a new points record last year, but Cobb also set a separate G1 record of his own by winning his first 8 matches. His only blemish was a loss to Okada on the last block night, and that kept him out of the final. It was a massive breakout performance for the insanely athletic big guy that's always, to me, had charisma issues holding him back. Hooking him up with United Empire and being a heel machine that destroys everyone was the perfect career move for him. The follow up this year will be interesting. Again, I'm pretty certain Okada is taking this block, but if he doesn't Cobb will be right there to take advantage. The fact that he's in what's been dubbed by Kevin Kelley as "the big boy block" means there's fewer guys he can purely out-power this year and that may hurt him. Projected points: 8-10

 

3. Tom Lawlor (first appearance)- Going in, this block is pretty much Okada, Cobb, and everyone else. "Filthy" is a former UFC fighter that's transitioned to wrestling. After a few years in MLW he signed with New Japan in 2020 and quickly became one of the top stars on NJPW Strong, New Japan's weekly US show. He was the inaugural Strong Openweight champion, a title he just recently lost in a bloody battle with Fred Rosser, the former Darren Young in WWE, after holding it about a year (exact dates are hard with Strong as it's all pretaped). This will be his debut in Japan. Given his stature on Strong he's a likely candidate to be "best of the rest" in A block, and it will be interesting to see him against more of New Japan's main roster. Projected points: 6-8

 

4. Lance Archer (6th appearance, first since 2019, 7.6 avg)- The lone AEW representative is coming back to the tournament that he had a bit of a singles breakout at in '19. Before then he was primarily known as a tag wrestler, after an impressive performance then he's gone on to a couple of IWGP US title runs. The fact he's the only guy from AEW making the trip and he's in a comparatively weak block might give him an extra win or two. Projected points: 6-8

 

5. Jonah (first appearance)- Speaking of the big boy block....the former Bronson Reed in NXT has also been wrestling on Strong, as well as Impact, and like Lawlor will be making his Japan debut here. I'll be honest, I didn't get the hype when he was in NXT. His matches never did much for me (an issue I also had with Karrion/Killer Kross at the same time but that's a whole different story). Newcomers tend to have average to below average tournaments, I expect little different with Jonah. Projected points: 4-6

 

6. Bad Luck Fale (7th appearance, first since 2019, 9.7 avg)- Fale was never a serious contender to win a block, but he almost always racked up decent to good point totals in past tournaments thanks to his size. He doesn't have that advantage as much in this group, and with it also being his first tournament in a few years he has all the feel of a space filler. Projected points: 4-6

 

7. Toru Yano (17th appearance, 10 last year, 8.8 avg)- The sublime master thief ended up with, in my opinion, a block that doesn't take full advantage of what he brings to the table. We shall see. Yano managed an above average 10 points last year partially thanks to being in the same block as Naito, and I can't imagine him getting anything close to that run this year. Regardless, Yano's comedy matches are always a highlight of every G1, we should be enjoying them fully while he's still doing them, and odds are that at some very badly timed moment a top contender will get Yano'd. Projected points: 2-4

 

B Block

 

1. Jay White (4th appearance, first since 2020, 12 avg, 2019 runner up)- The reigning IWGP World Heavyweight champion has been the model of G1 consistency, scoring 12 points in each of his first three tournaments (he skipped last year due to Japan's pandemic travel restrictions, preferring to stay in the US) and has all the feel of someone overdue to win one. But as the reigning champion, that year is highly unlikely to be this year. It's been over 20 years since anyone has won the tournament as champion, and certainly not since a title shot at Wrestle Kingdom became the prize for winning. However, thanks to the 4 block format I can definitely see White taking the block and getting knocked out in the semis. Projected points: 8-10

 

2. Great O-Khan (2nd appearance, 8 last year)- The great one (all hail) had a perfectly average tournament debut last year, and has continued to slowly work up the New Japan ranks while gaining fans thanks to both his wrestling ability (winner of last year's Tokyo Sports Technique Award) and his real life exploits. If White turns out to be not the one to make it out of this block. O-Khan is a fantastic bet to take it, and more likely to challenge to win it all if he does make it. Projected points: 8-10

 

3. SANADA (7th appearance, 8 last year, 8.7 avg, 2020 runner up)- Like White, SANADA has been a model of G1 consistency, though probably not how he would like. In every year but his finals run in 2020 he's scored exactly 8 points. Coming off an orbital bone injury that derailed his US title run, SANADA looks like something he's been most of his career- an enigma. I think he's going to be in contention but I have a hard time seeing him vaulting over the two guys I have above him. Projected points: 6-8

 

4. Tomohiro Ishii (10th appearance, 10 last year, 8.7 avg)- Mr. G1. I don't say that because he's a threat to win, in fact just the opposite, he's never been in serious contention at tournament's end. But what Ishii does do is step up his in-ring game more than anyone else this time of year. He may not win a lot, but more often than not he's got as many or more 4+ star matches than anyone else in the field when it's all over. Projected points: 6

 

5. Taichi (4th appearance, 6 last year, 7.3 avg)- Taichi made his first G1 appearance in 2019 after moving up from many years in the junior heavyweight division and after a rough lazy interference filled start has become a tournament solid hand. I still fondly remember his epic kick-fest with Ibushi on the last block night a couple of years ago. By this point he's a known commodity- he'll go out, have some solid to good matches, and end up with an average record. Projected points: 6

 

6. Tama Tonga (5th appearance, 6 last year, 7 avg)- Tonga will be competing in his first tournament as a member of Hontai after his Bullet Club expulsion, which means his matches should be very different from what we're used to seeing. I hope he gets to show what he can do as a wrestler, but the hill for a lot of wins is just too high to climb. I mean, he couldn't even hold on to the NEVER Openweight title. Projected points: 4-6

 

7. Chase Owens (2nd appearance, 4 last year)- One of my longstanding picks as most underrated wrestler in the world finally got the chance to be in a G1 last year, and though he didn't rack up a ton of points he did get a career defining win over Hiroshi Tanahashi. Owens has since had his first taste of IWGP gold with a tag title win with Fale. Like Tonga, I hope he can continue to showcase why he's massively underrated, but it won't come with a lot of wins. Projected points: 2-4

 

C Block

 

1. Tetsuya Naito (13th appearance, 0 last year due to injury, 10 avg or 11 avg minus last year, 2011 runner up, 2013 & 2017 winner)- Welcome to the Group of Death. Last year Naito suffered a heartbreaking legitimate knee injury while losing his opening match to ZSJ and had to forfeit the rest of his matches, ending up with a 0. He's since been vocal about main eventing January 4th again next year, and that the clock is ticking on his career as he turns 40 and had a second eye surgery to try to alleviate chronic vision problems. To do it, he's going to have to fight out of the most stacked block. In other words, a typical Naito storyline. He's been my pick to win the whole tournament for months based on how his story has unfolded this year and I'm sticking by it (and yes, there is some fandom bias there, Naito is my favorite wrestler in New Japan until and unless Shinsuke Nakamura and/or Kenny Omega walk back in the door). Projected points: 10

 

2. Zack Sabre Jr (6th appearance, 12 last year, 10.4 avg)- Earlier this year ZSJ won the single elimination New Japan Cup tournament for the second time. The last time he did that, in 2018, a G1 win seemed only a matter of time. He's since been undone by some inconsistency and two years focusing on the tag division along with his Dangerous Tekkers partner Taichi. Now he's back 100% focused on the singles division. If Naito breaks my heart again, ZSJ will be there ready and waiting to take this block and run with it. And it's very appropriate if it should come down to these two. Naito and ZSJ always seem to find each other in tournaments. Projected points: 8-10

 

3. KENTA (4th appearance, 12 last year, 10 avg)- KENTA made his New Japan debut in the 2019 G1 soon after his WWE release and has increased his point total every year, from 8 to 10 to 12. He's also coming back from multiple injuries suffered over the course of late last year and his insane no holds barred/impromptu ladder match with Tanahashi for the US title at Wrestle Kingdom. Is he deserving of a finals run? Absolutely. Will he make it out of this stacked group? Difficult, but not impossible. Projected points: 8-10

 

4. Hiroshi Tanahashi (21st appearance, 8 last year, 10.8 avg, 2004. 2010 & 2013 runner up, 2007, 2015 & 2018 winner)- The Ace can still go in the ring. Have no doubts about that, as he showed us again just recently in the Forbidden Door main event. But G1 facts are G1 facts, and the fact is after his surprising third G1 win in 2018 he's only had 8 points in each year since. Any hope of one last Ace run was pretty much squashed for this year when the blocks came out. Projected points: 6-8

 

5. EVIL (7th appearance, 14 last year, 10.7 avg)- It seems almost wrong to put EVIL this low, but- a. despite the fact he's had a lot of good single year point totals he's never made a final, b. as hard as House of Torture tries with their interference laden matches they're a distant 3rd in the heel stable pecking order right now behind United Empire and the revitalized Bullet Club proper, and c. speaking of pecking order, the other guys in this block right now are clearly above EVIL, who has no singles momentum to speak of. Maybe he gets some here, but I wouldn't bank on it. If he was in a different block he might have a shot. Projected points: 6

 

6. Hirooki Goto (15th appearance, 6 last year, 10 avg, 2016 runner up, 2008 winner)- The Goto roller coaster has most likely settled in at the station. He's keeping his career going in the tag division while moving toward New Japan Dad status, but I don't expect him to ever be a G1 threat again. Projected points: 2-4

 

7. Aaron Henare (first appearance)- You picked the wrong block to make your debut in, son. Henare's whole career has been constantly on the cusp of the next level but never quite getting there. It seems like Kevin Kelley has been predicting him to break out for at least four years now. Even in United Empire he's firmly behind, Ospreay, Cobb and O-Khan. He's here to eat pins while the other guys tear each other apart. Projected points: 2

 

D Block

 

1. Will Ospreay (3rd appearance, first since 2020, 10 avg)- Like White, the United Empire Kingpin sat out last year's tournament to avoid dealing with Japan's travel restrictions. He's also continued to get hit hard by the injury bug. Officially he's the current IWGP US champ, but Juice Robinson has been holding the belt hostage after being stripped due to injury (starting to think red strap belts are cursed, this one, the original WWE Universal...). He's also held the RevPro British Heavyweight title so long it feels like he was born with it. Ospreay's last G1 was hugely significant: on the final block night he turned heel on CHAOS stablemate Okada and first formed the United Empire. When he's healthy, New Japan treats him like a star. To me, D Block is a total coin flip between Ospreay and Shingo. Projected points: 10

 

2. Shingo Takagi (4th appearance, 13 last year, 9.7 avg)- Last year the wrestling machine (my nickname, not an official one though it should be) brought some much needed stability to the new IWGP World title that started out plagued by some questionable booking and untimely injuries. He also got the champion's run in last year's tournament, lots of wins but no finals. After dropping the world title he's spent most of the rest of the year so far bringing some credibility to the KOPW trophy, having some very original and fun matches with Taichi. Shingo is a guy you can put absolutely anywhere and he'll succeed, and make everyone else look better while doing it. Again, this block is a coin flip for me, but you gotta figure Shingo is going to win one of these before he's done. He and Ospreay have had some incredible matches, starting with their legendary 2019 BOTSJ final, and you know they'll add another chapter to the legend in their likely decisive block match this year. Projected points: 10

 

3. Juice Robinson (5th appearance, first since 2020, 7.5 avg)- Like A block, this one looks like Ospreay, Shingo and everyone else. Juice has had a career revitalization by turning heel, joining Bullet Club and morphing into The Disciple (hat tip to my buddy Cody for that observation), but he's not in a position to be a G1 threat. Holding the US title belt hostage is a nice angle though, and expect something to happen with that since Ospreay is also in the block. In his face days Juice was generally a very slow starter and strong finisher in the G1, as in he didn't start winning until after he was already eliminated, it'll be interesting to see if that continues. Projected points: 6-8

 

4. YOSHI-HASHI (6th appearance, 6 last year, 5.2 avg)- New Japan's eternal underdog has finally gotten some career traction recently: part of the most dominant NEVER 6 man champs in history, and finally tasting IWGP gold by winning the heavyweight tag titles with partner Goto. Doesn't mean his G1 story will change though. Expect more of the same this year. Lots of underdog crowd support, a lot of close but not quite, I'll get bored with his matches, and maybe one upset. Projected points: 4-6

 

5. David Finlay (first appearance)- It's nice to see him get a shot in a G1 but it's not something I've personally been clamoring for. His encounter with former FinJuice partner Robinson will be one of the block highlights for sure, but beyond that don't expect more than a first tournament run. Projected points: 4-6

 

6. Yujiro Takahashi (9th appearance, 5 last year, 5.5 avg)- Honestly, how Yujiro keeps getting booked in G1s is kind of beyond me. He brings very little to the table, his membership in House of Torture pretty much guarantees interference laden messes, and he's a weak link in what's already a fairly weak block without him. He did pull a huge upset on Ibushi last year on the opening night, maybe he's got that in him again. Projected points: 2-4

 

7. El Phantasmo (first appearance)- ELP is getting a rare entry into the heavyweight tournament as a junior heavyweight, something that usually doesn't bode well. Now don't get me wrong, I'm a fan, and have been since his first BOTSJ in '19. He's a great wrestler and superb in his character work. He's had some success with three IWGP junior tag title reigns and winning the two revived Super-J Cups in '19 and '20. He's also had good points success in BOTSJ but has yet to win the tournament or even make the final, and hasn't gotten the junior title yet. Both will come eventually. Projected points: 2-4

 

Projected Semifinals: Okada over White to give him a title rematch down the road, Naito over Ospreay

Projected Final: Naito over Okada, making them an even 2-2 on the year